Late, and a Slow Grind Day 3/22/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Sooner or later you have one of those days you are late to the party.  Trading in the U.S. market was well under way and had a bullish bias.  No price below the 5 minute EMA, and bars were seen as sluggish.  A slow grind of waiting if in a trade.

If a move is established ( i.e. late to the party) personal preference is just to stay on the side until a promising set up develops.  Chasing is not recommended,

The only play today was the thought that the high resistance would fail again, allowing a short in the pullback.

Resistance was seen in the 1549.5 area and another test was in progress from bar 20.  The thought was, price would push slightly into the resistance (we had 1450 as well) and pull back.

The short was taken and followed back to the EMA.  Not as exciting as yesterday, but small ranged moves, prices that are relatively stagnant, or prices that trades sideways are more difficult to trade.

It's Friday.  The market will change and more trades will come.  No need to waste energy on limited returns    Enjoy the weekend

Mult-Chart Looks as a Trade Timing Tool 3/21/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Speak to any number of traders (x) and you are likely to find X number of opinions about trading.  As you gleen through all the information, you are likely to see patterns emerging that center around some Price Action Strategy.  In your quest, just remember to find what seems to work for you, and keep it simplified.  I have seen some charts that are more for an art museum than for trading.

Today's point is to look at multiple time-frame charts as a tool for trading.


LOOK 1:  3 minute, 5minute and a 1point bar chart


The pre-open for the U.S. today was decidedly bearish in tone.  Thus my approach was to wait for a pullback, if the bull was to be revived, or wait for an opportunity to take a lower-risk short that would be with the dominant trend.

All three charts were showing a resistance level near the 20 and 50 EMA's.  The 5 minute was stalling near the price turn in the pre-open where price moved away from the 20EMA.

Any entry you take can fail.  The trader's job is to identify where price is likely to do what your trade is designed to do.  There should be some compelling reason (or reasons) to enter what your judgement is regarding as a lower risk trade that is likely to produce favorable results.

The trade was entered with a belief that price would, at a minimum, retest the prior lows.


LOOK 2:  setting targets

Setting targets and stops are a personal choice.  My preference is to take a winning trade that has price moving beyond my target.  No "here is the top, or the bottom".  Just play the action and leave biased opinions on the side.  In this case, they were set at support/resistance levels.

The trading range dictates; not random BS.  The market could care less about what you think.  Plays are from reading what is happening and what is the likely near-term results; not wild speculation ( example: "market is moving to 1520!").  There is a huge difference.

LOOK 3:















When a trade is over, look, read, make new interpretations.  Yes the trend line failed, yes price hit resistance, and yes it hit our target.  BUT.....

The higher lows seem to suggest a pullback, not a trend continuation for the bear.

Look, read, enjoy your day trading....

TREND LINE IN A RANGE BOUND DAY 2/28/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Today the BO5 bull failed,  In this pattern we expect price to pull back to the long BOT, and look for the range run for a break out of the opposite target, the short BOT, where BOT is the Break out target where one side is deemed stronger than the other.  That struggle today created a range bound day, roughly +5 to -5 from the range.

5 minute ES

Price began low in the range unable to firmly break out bearish.  Early news spiked price through the range and we began to see a resistance at 1518.75, and the short back to the open low.  With this type of price action, the trends are harder to play (emotionally) with all the wicks and tails.  One of the reasons for developing the BOT Range was to eliminate some of this emotion.  "If this, then that" logic is behind the system.  If the LB fails, we run the range, and so on.

To see the difference, look at the next trend that developed off bars 26 and 27.  It actually started off a 50CB 45 degree line from bar 19.   If you were nor "range run" long on bar 19, you should be able to decide after 4 and 5 hits of the trend line.

The next TL developed as the BO5 failed around 1524 and price fell below the EMA at bars 62-63.  Another 4-5 touches that failed to break the trend.  Action?  The TL is  suggesting strong bear bias.  BOT action was saying the same...

TWO THINGS ABOUT A STRONG TREND 2/27/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

one point range bars

THERE are two things ( more I'm sure) about a strong trend:  There seems to be exits at each new high, and there will be another trade for those that are patient.

In general, look for the second or third hit at the trend line (EMA , etc.) that you are using for a measure of support (bull) or resistance (bear).

TODAY:  bullish trend coming into the open.  Bar 330 and 345 could be entries off the TL.  Better was the gap bar after B5 with an exit (at the high area) when the micro trend line broke.  Micro TL's will occur with in the larger time frame daily TL.  Both have play advantages.  I prefer the micro as it tends to be a quicker in-and-out. From the side you are able to take advantage of the market.  If in a trade and conditions change, traders have a tendency to think " I can wait this out, it will come back into profit soon!".

next opportunity was the TL from B20 to 45.  This was a later trade in the TL around the B35 gap ( price to the trend line) with a MTL break at another high.  B55 came next with an exit at the prior high (1506).

1510 break was considered a short but price failed to run for the bears.  Instead, the trend line was rising suggesting more bullish action.

FOLLOW THE TREND EVEN WHEN IT CHANGES 2/26/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

This is a 1 point range bar chart and I find it help ID the trends nicely.

open:  price in a narrow range and it moved higher to find resistance.  The break of that stall was the short and we see TL 1 developing.  The EMA offered additional resistance for adds or new entries.

Three lower support areas developed and we had our first failed break out by the bulls set up TL 2/  Two additional attempts by the bulls created a resistance neckline that would be a long on the break out.

When TL3 was in play, longs were taken to the first high area  on TL 4.  Some remained short and continued to add contracts.  If you have the bullets and emotional control, play YOUR game.

The first counter trend play was a short at the double high back to the EMA area.

TL5 was also a continuation of TL3, and the last long to the double high area was played.

FOLLOW THE TREND, PERIOD! 2/25/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Not much to say today.  If your against this super trend you deserve to have your account wiped out.  A little mid day price above the EMA  (bar 40-44 area).  There is our standard bear gap from bar tops to the EMA, and bar lows were pushing lower.  A very convincing bear sell off.

TREND TRADING: ONE MORE LOOK 2/22/13

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

NICE week of trading and we end on a trending Friday, bear to bull.

Bear trend line to support followed by a break out bull trend from the support. 

Additional support at the trend line was a secondary entry or add-to.