LONG BIAS DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Read the prior post.  Looking for 1220 and Wednesday would be another BO run day.  Got both.

Quick look at the chart.  We see the three phases:  open bullish run, a bear trend channel,  followed by another bull channel   breaking to the upper long targets.  Strong BO Days will run 10-15 points.  An excellent end to November and a strong support that the market low ( for balance of the quarter) is in.

Just for fun, here is the 15 minute chart with the 5m notes and lines:

CHARTS BY TRADING ZONES:

RANGE BOUND DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


A quick look at the chart and some commentary today.  We were looking yesterday for the bull to retest 1200, and we got that overnight.  With PA stalling ( a reversal) at the BO-5 level, it appeared we would have a range bound day after yesterdays major bull run.

COMMENTARY TODAY WITH ADDED NOTES:



[09:35] <CM> bearish channel from 5am est points of interest today 1198-1193-1189.25 the test of the 1200 is in overnight bias today test support 1190 area and try 1200 bo
[09:40] <CM> b2 longs    THE BULL BIAS WAS LOOKING GOOD FOR AN ENTRY
[09:43] <CM> +3 part bal be+2t
[09:51] <CM> +2 for anyone taking the 93 and/or b4 PB    1193 WAS DISCUSSED AS A VALID ENTRY.  NEWS PUSHED PA TO 1200
[09:52] <CM> a close above ema moves stop w pa
[10:02] <CM> x bal 99.5
[10:03] <CM> more upside but on a pop expect some pb then pa will settle.. 
[10:06] <CM> chart look es (LINK REMOVED)
[10:07] <CM> the 1190 area support held and we saw another test of 1200 mkt long at 1198 bo
[10:15] <CM> two thoughts +10 from mkt low (1191-1201)    1206 from b1 +10 roughly..  8-10 points are considered exit points
[10:17] <CM> 1203 is long bo +5   B8 held at the EMA; 1193 was the long target for a BO
[10:20] <CM> we should get +5 http://screencast.com/t/P8497el3
[10:26] <CM> bo 5        time for a break happy trading all
1[10:28] <CM> reversal setting up here potential ema pb   MAXT B12 reversal near BO-5 level
[10:34] <CM> link removed
[12:57] <CM> the reversal did pb to ema 3 support hits on the long target pa range bound in a descending triangle 50/50 here bias is long short watch around 1193 http:// (link removed)    From the MAXT we see three PB's from the high TL to the support at the long range-1198 (can be a triangle- lower highs with higher lows) followed by a descending triangle with a BO.  By the time the BO occurred, (took a hour +/-) the 1193 view was modified to watch for support
[13:53] <CM> looking for the bo http://  (link removed)   B53 was a BO but very near the support at 1193
[13:54] <CM> and 1193 support 

[13:56] <CM> looking for 93 to hold  for longs    reply to a question
[13:56] <n> you going short or long?
[13:56] <CM> long                                          reply to a question

[14:04] <CM> http://   (link removed)
[14:06] <CM> 97.5-98 target       the 93 long should be able to return to the upper PA prior to the BO, B47-48   (and the 1198 long range)
[14:41] <CM> http://  (link removed)
[14:43] <CM> push 2 from ema
[14:44] <CM> x 97.5 +5
[14:45] <CM> recap expected bo to fail at 93 support. no 5tf of 93 and mkt in a range bound mode..
[15:06] <CM> new bull channel http:// (link removed)
[15:30] <CM> outlook for tomorrow: run day (mon) range day (tue) run again day (wed) bias still long.. 1220 upside
[15:50] <CM> pa at bottom tl of channel

OVERSOLD BULL DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


Comment from last evening:

[18:06] <CM> nice gap open across the mkts. will be nice to recapture es 1180.s early in week and a run to test 1200 later.




The markets were oversold and the evening open had a nice gap.  We have a strong support now above the 1180 area, and still favor a run to test 1200.    The bull should be able to retake that level.

Important comments are on the chart today.

PA BREAKOUT-EMA BREAKOUT

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


ES TODAY:

• The ranges will give a read on the PA direction{  Bull, bear, range bound day.
• Short bull FBO, long bear FBO.
• Short/long the range runs.
• Short/long the BO's or wait for the EMA range.
• Look for 50CB's;  very important.

Today the PA failed to break long and reversed the range for a short.  A 50CB developed at B6.  B8-9 failed to break and moved lower.  That 50CB level became important for FBO's later.

Look for shorts at the BO or wait for the EMA cross ( B11).  Testing this, the EMA cross bar will produce a range to consider for the short(lower BO) or long (upper BO).  Today was a short, and the area to consider was shorting 1167.25-1167.5.

B17-19 were EMA FBO's and a short area, as was the failure of bars31-33 to break the EMA-Cross (67.25-67.5).

Two FBO's were shorts or wait for the break of the EMA-Cross line.

Trade the set-ups, and trade with the market bias.  Today, short...

DOUBLE TOP WITH A BEAR TL

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

The range data provided for the 6E and ES remained unchanged over night due to range bound PA.  To read the 6E (or any chart) the ranges find 1- strong bull; 2- strong bear; and 3- a transition range that can be played long or short.

Traders will enter at the lower range if PA is showing strength.  The thought is that the bear failed to sell.  Entry can be via a bar or the EMA.  Secondary entries are at the middle range and the upper (reverse action if bear run).  Note PA will always break first.  The logic for a strong bull/bear is the crossing of the EMA into the Upper or Lower trading Range.  In this example today, the bull trend had developed from the lower range  (about 90 ticks) and was still a strong long at the upper range- about 50-60 ticks.

THE ES

The ES had a double top in over night action ( pre US Open) and was in a bear trend reversal at the open after hitting the BO-5 and nearly the BO-10 level.  Those DT's were at the mid range, forecasting a range bound day at best, or bull sell off day at worst (only for equities and longs).

The focus of these post have changed to direct your attention to key levels, key PA that is of interest.  I do not list (although guilty in the past) the + of the trade(s) as each trader will have different results.  Some hold for ticks. some points.  Some trade bar signals/set ups.  The important thing is to look for the reasons to trade /exit.  Nothing else is important.  You will develop your own needs with each trade.

 In a strong trend, the TL can offer entries you should practice/execute.  Those came near B6 and B13 today.  For an Rth trader, it would be a lower high for B13.  The TL was seen with global chart, thus the preference at the open.

A reversal long began a bull run ending in a flag pattern followed by a descending triangle, all near/at that bear TL.

The failure to return into the range at the descending triangle was a good lead in for the PA cross of the EMA and bear TL for another BO-5 to BO-10 run.

US OPEN BO SHORT

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

In the pre market we had a nice push by bulls that failed at the upper range.  By the US Open, we were in a range reversal.  B1 had difficulty at the global EMA while B2 pushed down for the balance of the range and to a short BO.  Bulls mostly stayed on the sideline until a BO-10 level hit.

Between B21 and 40 an ascending triangle developed and we saw two sets of lows (double bottoms) and a series of higher highs (HH).

The bear TL and the triangle had two bearish push levels (price moving above) and PA was expected to push back to the 1188 area from the market low.

Not a bad day.  Opportunities  for trades in the range run, BO, TL breaks, HH's, and lows (DB's).

FINAL LOOK

RANGE BOUND DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


BREAK OUT TARGETS ( a trading range) are calculated before the US Open.  They can be calculated with any market, and an overnight 6E chart will be shared later in the post.

Today we had a pre-open BO+5  to the long side, and a BO +5 to the short side.  A range bound day overall.   Neither side could front a run, and the range plays became dominate.  Most of the US market was a range reversal (LB to SB)

Tonight, I hope to clarify how I see and play the market.

GENERAL FOCUS

• A BO of the long is where bulls are expected to show strength, thus a run of +5  +10  and/or +15 will often be seen.  A failure to run much beyond a limit usually spells a reversal.
• Between the strong bull and strong bear is a range of transition.  Bull/bear plays are seen, but the belief is that a FBO or weak BO of  LONG/SHORT (top and bottom line of range) means a range reversal is expected, and tends to run to the opposite side of the range.
• A BO short is where the bear is considered dominate and expected to run BO 5, 10, or 15+.  A FBO has the same expectation as described in the long BO.
• The EMA and/or VWAP is expected to cross one of the calculated lines and often at the same junction will be current price action.  When an average, range line, and PA collide a BO is expected.  This may seem obvious, but remember, the range line is there first and acts as a guide to the market.
• A two bar engulf, often referred to as a two-bar doji or the MAXT, at (proximity) an average or range line is regarded as a reversal signal.

ES TODAY

Pre-open long to BO-5 came back into range and failed to break out just before the US Open.  This is why the preference is for a global setting as opposed to a Rth chart.  The range run was significant, and for 11 points with an exit at the FBO b4.  It then took three bull pushes to break the middle range (EMA/VWAP).  B18 area failure began another run to the lower range.  Not looking good for bulls.  Essentially we were moving slightly above/below b1.  Also note b1 low was exactly at the mid range.  Important information.  Also important, a H&S developed with a neckline at the short BOT (1214).  We had a BO of the H&S base and SB for a BO-5 run.  BO-5 was holding so a range bound day appeared most likely.  Neither bull nor bear could push much beyond a BO-5 level.

The reversal from 1213 ( 3 point risk) was expected to be 8 points.  The actual was 7 and price came back to float around the lower range.

6E

Last evening I provided a friend some range points for CL and 6E.  Here is the result.

PA entered at the lower range and continued to run bullish in to the Euro Zone Market.

BOT RANGES RETURN FOR DECEMBER

BOT TRADING SYSTEM




A FREE VERSION OF BOT RANGES WILL RETURN FOR DECEMBER 2011

NEW SUBSCRIPTIONS ARE CLOSED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR.

FAILED BO FOLLOWED BY RANGE RUN SELL OFF

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Trading looked promising last evening as the PA rose for some long entry profit.  We even had a nice range run to the LB in the pre open that looked promising.  It fail as did the one near 10:45 AM EST.  Two FBO's and a LH failed test the PA rolled over and ran the range for a BO-15 run.  ES was a bit over sold and some bulls pushed the price back to the 1215 area.

The outlook, expecting a gap up for Rth charters tomorrow.  ES natural range is 1215-1272, with NQ at 2273-2382.  All depends upon the Euro crisis.  I spoke in the past that Europe without the Euro was feared more than the unity with the Euro.  I hope they remember that. It is becoming difficult for them.

We still see the "haves" and the "have not".  It will be difficult for Italy to continue to borrow Billions just to pay the debt interest.  Some pressure by Germany and France on the banking system and debt holders will be needed.  Too bad we don't have Jubilee-  forgive debt, start over.

SOME COMMENTS

[11:30] <CM> traded last evening we have a bull run developing HL of 1228 b23-24 1229-29.5 has risk of 2 target of 5.5-6

1[11:45] <CM> ranges today  1234-1230-1225


[11:46] <CM> I'm at 1228 but the comment on 29-29.5 is good too  the engulf at the TL
[11:47] <CM> x+5 at 31  wait for next move
[11:49] <CM> i know there was +2 above the exit  I'm in this to win   and let good runs do there job  those that chase the last point or try to get tops/bottoms will get enough right to play stupid on another occasion  and go home broke


[12:45] <CM> all mkts b39 buyers
[12:46] <CM> 1213.5  2265.25
[12:47] <CM> tf 718.8
[12:53] <CM> x for profits run balance at be  win-win at mkt lows



[14:44] <CM> 1210-10.75 area is long
[14:51] <CM> 13.5 x part bal be from 1210
[14:51] <CM> correction be +.5
[15:48] <CM> 10's buying again



CHART

BALANCED MARKET

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Around 2 PM EST the DJIA, S&P500, and NASDAQ were essentially flat with little change.  A note of this was made in the chat.  Two hours later we had a range reversal, and eventually a short BO-10.  A +15 to -10 day.

The ES was in a bull channel going into the US open.  A HL, MAXT at the EMA BO at b62-63 led to another BO at the lower channel TL and the SB BO-10.

BULLISH MOVE WITH LATE WEAKNESS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

The ES market opened with a BO of the Long BOT.  PA had been in a reversal up to the open.  The initial run hit  BO-5 then failed to reach 10.  A follow up test stalled at BO-5, and we had a reversal back inside the ranges.


[08:38] <CM> es 45-45.5 resistance to break
[08:41] <CM> nq 2333-2333.75


[09:48] <CM> ema support for es and nq  we had bo 45-45.5   +5 (looking for 10)  2333-2333.75   +15




[09:50] <CM> for opt expiry week key holdings at 1250 and 1270  they ran the 50's out  opens mkt for another run up
[09:54] <CM> global low at 1234 was +8 from prior at 1226  est HL and removed opt holdings



[11:30] <CM> 44-44.5 longs
[11:33] <CM> note these are reversal points in current bar(s)
[12:45] <CM> +10 es on that reversal


[13:43] <CM> bull channel inside bullish wedge  why mkt changes around 11:30 est

[15:18] <CM> note the slower pace less bullish




THE  WEDGE/CHANNEL

TREND LINE TO RIGHT SHOWING WEAKNESS

BEAR CHANNEL

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A Strong bearish channel developed early in the Euro Zone and continued into the US market.  All strong channels have benefits at the upper and lower trend lines  for trades provided the trader is aware of break outs.

ES Trading Opportunities

BO AFTER A RANGE DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


Nice BO  day after yesterday range bound day.  The reversal from 1226 hit 1238 and 1248 upper targets.  Price stalling at BO 15.  Half day with the markets, half day off.  Have a great day.

RANGE BOUND DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

[10:08] <CM> es back to first buyers 36.5-37.5
[10:09] <CM> es nq tf ym all flipped same area b7-8
[10:11] <CM> bias still short but it was a quality ct pb 







[10:38] <CM> es range  1226-1238   nq 2285-2415
[10:39] <CM> we are close for reversal potential 







[11:45] <CM> near the 1238  next level at 1248
[11:47] <CM> +10 on es reversal 






FBO's in the pre open with a MAXT at the upper range began a 10 point range run with some quality CT pullbacks.  A MAXT developed near the target for the potential reversal, to begin another 10 point run.  Another range run and settlement at the mid range for the close.  A very interesting day for trading.

TARGETS AND REVERSAL BREAK OUTS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Prior post reported targets for the ES and NQ.  As these approach (or hit) the BOT levels become even more important to capture reversal Break outs.

TWO DAY LOOK

Tuesday we saw runs to reach targets that were discussed last week, only to see a significant BO of the Lower BOT.  See the similar BO today.  Prior to that BO, we saw some FBO and a range run to the LB.  For Rth charters, the "gap" was not filled.  At the LB PA reversed for another range run followed by that key BO.

In a strong trend day, opposite or CT trades must be handled with care.  Generally, second and third attempts tend to be better than the first.  Long 1, 2, and 3 were discussed in the chat, with the L2 and L3 being considered as better opportunities, yet still CT.


TRADITIONAL LOOK

RTH LOOK

MARKET MOVES TO TARGETS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

From the last post, targets are near:

[09:50] <CM> gm all   ES near term 1262 longer 1285-1290 still valid NQ- near 2373 longer 2400-2406








No trades today (personal issue) but I have listed the signal points for trades that were available...

TARGETS IGNORE NEWS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

[09:50] <CM> gm all   ES near term 1262 longer 1285-1290 still valid NQ- near 2373 longer 2400-2406


The market opened strong then sold off to mid day.  Not looking good for the outlook.  But a run from the short BOT to 1262 is much better than a run from the long BOT.  Both ES and NQ hit their target.

The Long BOT broke early and ran into a selling reversal MAXT.  The EMA contained two Pullbacks before PA settled at the Short BOT.  A multi-time frame buy signal hit at B38, as price rose the balance of the day to hit the 1262 target.

TARGETS AND REVERSALS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

End of the week, so quick look at the chart action today.

PM      BOTs set in pre market and PA moved to the Sell BOT

b1-4    EMA failed BO

b5        sell signal  SB entry     BO 5 & BO 10 hit

b14-15     reversal signal with a  Long  b15;  bullish channel begins

b36-37     sell signal and MAXT setup

b40-41    Buy signal  with 41 entry

b40-48    Ellipse formation; first half range estimated second half to 1251

An Ellipse is a new proprietary measure that is under review.  The best way to describe it:  think of eye glasses.  Two equal side with a common middle.  The middle in this case was at/near 1246


[13:36] <CM> look for sb long reversal
[13:40] <CM> L 46.5
[13:42] <CM> ellipse calculation would get price to 1251
[13:53] <CM> 51 hit twice xall 


b63-64  long signal  EMA/SB

b69-70  Long

b76 second ellipse  1253 projection Long signal b 77

Market opens lower Sunday evening.

LONG BIAS DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

QUICK REVIEW of post for last evening and today:


[21:20] <CM> es outlook tight range 1211-1245 that should narrow tonight with a break out run tomorrow
[21:26] <CM> we are in a similar pattern to 9/22-23 & 9/25-26 started a 70 point run



[10:09] <CM> early longs 1232-1234 for mkt reversal
[10:17] <CM> longs +3-5 depending upon your entry..


[10:26] <CM> new longs can enter at 1238.75-1239.25


[10:33] <CM> if leg 2 is similar to (leg 1) going into Rth ema we would see 1242




And so on.  The long bias hit.  The issue that was a little discouraging was seeing so many "short" post at any bear bar or new high.  The EMA remained strong support after the market reversal.

GLOBAL LOOK

Pre market  BO of LB followed by triple short signals going into the open.
Open reversal of LB which is expected to run the range.
Additional short at the LB
First exits at the MB where "buying" was noted
50CB bar develops at b7 and the SB holds and buy signal
B8 long entry.  Market reversal noted and reported.
B13-14 a trapped MAXT, between the EMA and the LB
Sell signal at the LB B17
B22 LBBO
GAP bar short at B26
Consolidation B28-38
New longs at the BO.  BO 5/10 hits before we see another GAP Bar exit followed by a MAXT reversal
New long signal at b64-35



A LOOK AT THE Rth CHART

GAP Lines are set, and initial selling hit at B3.  B8-9 set up a reversal in the market.  Selling (or exits as the trend was bullish) occurred on stalls at the upper GAP TL. while Long entries were signaled at the UGTL and the EMA.    

RANGE BOUND DAY

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A different approach tonight, a look at the Rth chart.  Unless a day opens at the prior day close, a Rth chart by nature will always show a gap.  PA stayed close to that "gap" for a range bound day.

For the signal method we are developing, there were seven signals today.  Two are listed as marginal, and will be regarded as a scratch or loss.  Yes they show some profit potential, but not for most traders due to the tight range after the entry.

The preference, of course, is for a signal at the beginning of a nice trend run, and we had those today.  Different look, same objectives; find the better trades.

RANGE SUPPORTED BULL CHANNELS

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


SOMETHING different tonight.  If you not familiar with BOTs, read some post.  Tonight the focus is upon the entry signals being added to the BOTs.  13 signals fired today with some of the stronger ones at/near a BOT level.

The purpose is two fold:  1- It is nice to know the levels PA is likely to begin a move or reverse a move.  The BOTs and the Break Out Targets  have been very good at that part.  2-  We need a "when" factor for the move, either at/near a BOT, or away from the BOT levels in the Upper Trading Range or the Lower Trading Range.

The hope is for  a winning percentage for the signals combined with the BOTs.  Time will provide that data.  The unedited daily information will be posted in this blog.  This is a process, and will be the new focus of the blog.  Trades, and BOTs in general, will not be discussed.

Thanks to all that have joined in this journey.