WE ARE CLOSE TO A BOLD BREAK OUT 6/29/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 OFTEN traders will review the day in chat while looking for productive after hours trades.  We had a significant buy signal on Thursday, actually two break out ten  signals, and PA reversed and ran the BOT Range for a BO-5 (5 points beyond the Long BOT) and a test of the important 1324.5 area.  The 24.5 was important on Wednesday.


 Quoted just prior to the break out:   [22:42] <CM> this is es daily  we are headed for a significant bo  (chart deleted)


 The chat got lively as the PA soared, and ended the US Market some 35 points above the Long BOT.  BOT (break out targets) were developed to target the PA area where the advantage one side (position) is favored over the opposite position.  Beginning with that BO-10 buy signal,   Bull/long/buy became greater than Bear/short/sell


5m Two Day Chart


Range Run with a Long BO with a very strong bullish Trend Line.

The Daily Look

RANGE RUNS AND BREAK OUTS 6/28/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TO understand the US market today, one must look at the pre market.  We had a small bull channel running the range  when we had a final spike to the 1324.5 area (was important yesterday).  What follows is a bear range running channel to a BO-5 then a near BO-10 effort.  PA stalled at 1308 in the B14 area and proceeded to hit it (or stall near) on multiple bars.  B18 long signal added a trust in taking a long, even though it was still counter trend in a bear channel, but viewd as a FBO of the channel.  Combined with the PA gap to the BO-10, reasons enough to suspect a pullback to the BO-5.

There was a PB, but it too hit resistance about mid channel as the channel began to fade into a transition stage of range bound PA  roughly 1314-1310.  A second test of the BO-10 was another long signal.  Bulls had taken positions roughly at 1310-1309-1307 and only needed 1308+ for profit.

The bull channel ended with a spike BO that ran the range  to retest 1324.5: where all this seemed to start earlier...

PRE OPEN BUYERS TIPPED THE SCALE TO BULLS 6/27/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE month is coming to a close and bulls are thinking a summer rally.  Perhaps.

Buyers tip the scale from short to buy in the pre open.  They bought (minimum) at three areas as PA moved to test the Short BOT.  By B1 we were in the first bull leg.  I mentioned in chat that if you missed the signals,  this was a strong bull trend developing and the next plausible entry would be at a quality pullback (PB).  B3-4 delivered, and new longs entered leg 2 at the EMA.  Exits were suggested at the LBBO-5 level, then B10 hit.  Dogi at the HOD.  PA pulled back to the EMA to find renewed support and a two leg move from the EMA (#3 and 4) and fell into a range bound pattern roughly +/-2 points from the BO-5.  By the mid afternoon PA had held near the BO-5 and was expected to test 1326.5-1327.5 again.  It did only to return to the BO-5.

RANGE BOUND -RANGE RUNS-RANGE BO 6/26/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

 THE US pre open was in a range bound mode, and the comment was made that current PA long/shorts were being made at prior signal levels.  This particular play is still in review.

By the open, price was hitting prior highs and exits were reported.  PA had a double top and proceeded to run the range for a FBO of the Short BOT .  A reversal was seen, and PA ran the range back to the Long BOT BO and eventually made it to  the LBBO-5 level.  Bull entries were possible at  B27 and the Mid level, B29 LBBO, and B49-50 from the bear PB inside the bull run.

All-in-all not a bad trading day when key levels were your entry targets.

EARLY BREAK OUT DEVELOPS RANGE BOUND PA 6/25/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A early break out in PA at the Short BOT range to a BO-5 and BO-10 level only to become range bound.  B1 and B2 50CB levels failed a B8 test by bulls, and it took until B34 for PA to return to the EMA.

New resistance developed around 1307.5 and support was found around 1303.5 as PA moved in the BO-5 to BO-10 range, with key reversals found in the B52, B64, and B74 areas.

MARKET GOES BULLISH 6/22/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Friday, the day after the bank downgrade information and a extended bear sell off.  Not much was expected, as the market would try and play it safe as traders take an early weekend.

The market played with the BOT Range in the pre open and had developed a slow, grinding bull channel into the open hitting a double high around 26.5-27.  Then the PB into mid morning.

This is where the market became interesting again.  Highs (with sellers) and now a higher low (from the pre open) with buyers at the Short BOT level.  The market was going bullish. and later reached the long BO+5 level.

NARROW RANGES = BOLD RUNS 6/21/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WE have seen it previously.  A narrowing of the BOT Ranges, followed by a bold, extended run in price action.  PA did not fail to deliver on 6/20 and 21.


6/20/12

Wide swings in the PA that returned into the range keeping the BOTs unchanged going into 6/21.


6/21/12

The Short BOT breaks and the EMA is rarely challenged for an extended SBBO run.

TIGHT RANGE = BOLD BO 6/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TIGHT range today was an indicator that we would see a nice, extended break out.  The 10 minute ES chart had two valuable trading zones.  The first, the range run of the BOT levels and the break out.  BO's that do not fail are expected to run +5 from the BOT level.  No failure at +5, then a run to +10.

The second profit level today was the BO-5 run to the BO-10.  The BO-10 stalled, suggesting a pullback to the BO-5 level.   We got that, then a buy signal hit on B62 of the 5m chart and hinted at the level buys (longs) would be of interest.  The bull PB hit a  bear TL from the high of the day and rolled over for revived shorts.  That middle zone was a +15 trading area.


ES 10 MINUTE CHART

RANGE BOUND: BO5 TO BO5 6/18/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE US Market opened below the Short BOT level with B1 almost setting a range from the EMA to the SBBO-5.  B2 reversed, and set the tone for the day: long bias as PA returned to range.

B2, B7, B8, and B11 established a lower TL support for the Range Run LBBO.

PA stabilized in the upper part of the range  (mid to long) before finally breaking long to the LBBO-5 level.  The LB provided support on the PB and price action again rose to the BO-5 area.

LONG BIAS PREVAILS PART 2 6/15/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TRIPLE witching expiration and a market moving like a new skater on ice: slow and steady.  The long bias was in play and began to be revealed with the growing gap to the short BOT (SB).

The PA rose in an ascending triangle and found it difficult to cleanly break the upper trend Line (TL).

Continued pressures on the Long BOT (LB) at 1330.75 took it's time but finally gave us the LBBO-5 target with some change to spare.

It is BOT Theory that a successful BO will hit a 5 point target.  Failure is deemed a reversal strategy.  Today, the focus stayed with the long bias.

LONG BIAS PREVAILS 6/14/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE bias was long.  We had two LB test (actually LBBO-5) and 1 SB.  B1 set a range we were discussing, and there was a favorable close to B2.  But B3 presented a problem, so to speak.  Indecision.  Where was the selling follow through?   We had an established TL on top and now we were seeing a lower TL develop.  Signals at B3-4 sealed the deal.  This was 1 of 3 very important TL's working with the BOT Range and the BO's.

By B6 we see a 50CB develop that had a challenge that failed early on at B13.  This was TL #3 for the important TL's.  PA stalled at the BO-10 level and broke the 50CB TL in a PB to the BO-5 level only to find buyers at TL #2  and a buy signal.  Case closed.  Bulls ran and dumped on late arrivals.  Once the carnage was over, bulls again resumed their upward bias.

TIGHT BO TO BO RANGE THAT FAILED 6/13/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

TODAY  we started the US below the short BOT and ran to the BO 5 for support.  PA reversed, ran the range and headed for the long BO 5.  Stopped slightly below, which begins to raise the expectation that the market may well resume the selling.  After the second attempt failed,  PA ran the range and once again continued to sell to the BO5 and 10 levels.

We will often see BO to BO range bound PA, prior to a continued move in PA.  IF one BO hits and the other fails, this is believed to be a signal that PA will return to the "hit" position.  Today, that was  selling after the bulls failed.

DOW TRIPLE; ES DOUBLE LONG OUTLOOK 6/12/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

LAST evening after a day of extended selling, something occurred that gave a clue to today's trading:  buyers at a prior support.

The market had heavy puts still open.  Logically with a large sell off one would expect some (most?) to exit with profits prior to expiration.  If so, market buyers would look for a beneficial entry point to play the next leg up.  They do not like buying high, giving preference to a pullback for a better entry.

Last evening they got that opportunity.

The outlook seemed obvious:  

[22:58] <CM> 60m  buyers at the support levels we discussed earlier  (chart link deleted)
[22:59] <CM> tomorrow:  dow triple digit move   es double digit


A little detour in the US Open with a range run BO short, that found support at the BO-5 level.  A little "shake (shake out traders) and Break" was in order before the longs again took control with a reversing range run and long BOT BO.

PA ends +10 for the long break out, more for those entering the reversal.

EXTENDED BEAR SELLING 6/11/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

6/10/12 open had a nice gap.  Unfortunately the Euro Zone trading began selling off the gain.  By the US open, we see a control bar in B1 that was never challenged.  A range run quickly developed and the gap was filled.

Selling broke lower and was followed by the 20 EMA.  SBBO to 5, 10, 15, and 20 followed.

BO BULL RUN: M OR U! 6/8/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

OK, time to rollover your contracts.  But for the first day or  two the contracts M and U have been fairly consistent, just different price levels.  Some times the volumes seem slow to develop at rollover, but U is grown up now.  Today was the last for the M.

M

U

 The only short was short lived.  The H&S did not develop from the HOD around b46.  Get out, move on. In the scheme of trading today, it did not have an adverse effect.  Follow the trend that never looked back...

BULLS CONTINUE FROM THE FLIP POINT 6/6/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

YESTERDAY we had an alert about long interest at 1272.5 and 1275; points where the market was poised to flip from selling to buying.  It did, and continued today for a LBBO-20 day.


Yesterday


[07:43] <CM> mkt still in a sell mode until we return back inside the range conservative longs 1275 aggressive 72.5 new ranges later

And he bull continues to run with a pre-open range run hitting the Mid BOT at the open and breaking the Long BOT.

BO RUN TO BO 6/5/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


NON post days are recorded under the WEEK IN REVIEW page.

OK, I was planning a break.  But perfect storms are worth breaking silence . It did not take long for the suggested targets to play.  In fact, B1 of the US Open did it.

[07:43] <CM> mkt still in a sell mode until we return back inside the range conservative longs 1275 aggressive 72.5 new ranges later

+10 for both entry targets.