RANGE BOUND: SB TO BO-5 4/30/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

APRIL ends with PA in the pre open in a PB to the SB.  It fails at the upper TL of the bear channel and continues for a nice Short run to the BO-5 level.

B7 was a nice support bounce back to the SB and a test of the B3 50CB.  The CB's and the EMA seem to hold PA for hours as we trading in a smaller range with  rising triangle developing.  We were looking for another B& type run higher, but the bears still needed a few more points as they pushed 2 points below the BO-5 to find support.

PA back to the SB.

RANGE BOUND: LB+2 TO SB+2 4/27/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A range bound day that began with a range run after a pre open LBBO reversed.  the SBBO hit about +2 and it too reversed for another range run to the LB.   Toward the end, PA played with the B1 range before closing slightly down.

Some comments from today:


[08:20] <CM> for those present pa in euro zone moved back inside yday bot levels around 4 am est we had a new lbbo which is hitting at +10. current bot levels are long-1401 mid 97.75 short 95.25
[08:22] <CM> last buy signals 96.5-97 7:45 area
[08:31] <CM> rr selling
01[08:35] <CM> most of this appears as profit taking and the release of Italian bond auction
01[08:39] <CM> will let news settle and look for new ops
01[08:53] <CM> ms held buyers back in




01[09:39] <CM> failure at lb    rr shorts at us open

01[09:43] <CM> this should cont for the rr    at mb now
01[09:46] <CM> the issue  we had earnings pushing PA up  now euro news will pb   also first attack on 1400  and bears defending   bull will challenge again,   remains to be seen if today  generally believe a fbo at one end runs and breaks the other  so 1401-97.75-95.25 expected..


01[09:51] <CM> here stp to 97.5 just below mb  there is the chance pa bounces at the low  and we end up with a range bound day  if so  we play the rr not bo's
01[09:53] <CM> the sh was 4 bars prior to open 1400.75 below the lb
01[09:53] <CM>   there is thr range run b5 completed
01[09:54] <CM> 95.75 part bal stp at 96.75  continues to push dn
01[09:55] <CM> buyer interest noted at the sb
01[09:56] <CM> and we exit all
01[09:56] <CM> nice 1pb bar right at the sb

 And the day continued with trades favored in the range run, not the break outs.

RANGE RUN BO DAY 4/26/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

PRE-OPEN PA pulled back to y-day LB then ran the SB for a nice range run day finally breaking the LB and hitting a BO-5.

Long were suggested at 84.5, 86. and 88.

RANGE BOUND WITH EXCITEMENT 4/25/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


LAST evening the AAPL news was completed.  Earnings from all corners seem better.  We spoke about this in a prior post.  With expectations muted, any good news would rally the market. In the late afternoon US trading it was suggested that there may be an interest to long AAPL; either stock or calls.

PA pushed higher and leveled off until the Euro Zone open, running from the 1375 area to 1380+ then settling into a range bound area around 1378.

The reason the Global look is preferred over the Rth chart:  PA is continuous from market opens on Sunday evening until the close Friday evening.  Astute traders watch what happens before the open.  Today was no disappointment.  PA hit the SB and ran the range.  By the US Open, there was a LBBO which was playable as well.  PA continued for the BO-5 level at 1386.  With an end of the day close at one point higher, the initial open action settled into a range bound day between the LB and the BO5.

Key points:

Early range run and a break out to the +5 level that hit selling resistance.

Bear channel back to the LB support.  PA began to show a slight gap above the LB and was trapping between the LB and the upper channel TL.

Support wins; a BO of the channel (after the FCHBO) PA run back to the +5 area.

Another sell off back to support where buyers returned for a three push run to break the 1386 resistance.

Yes, the trapping sideways action is trying, and will lead some to try other instruments.  Keep working on your trades. Planned entries and exits in any market will more than make up for brief "no trade zone" action.

WHAT KIND OF DAY WAS IT? 4/24/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


WHAT kind of day was it?

 From a PA look, it was mostly range bound trading with a pop early in after hours as more positive earnings news was released.

With the 24 hour BOT look, BOTs were the same for  today and we had a pre-open push just below the LB for a long entry that ran for a BO5 and then a BO10 run.

For the US only BOT data (trial run today) we had an 8AM EST range run that flip just above the SB.  PA ran the range back to 1367 and then to the BO5 level.

FROZEN BOT LOOK

US OPEN LOOK

DATA FOR TODAY

Under both scenarios,  the BOT points exceed the market open to close total.

NEARLY PERFECT RANGE DAY 4/23/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WAS watching the PA last evening /early AM.  mentioned that 1372 was the right side support.  It broke for a BO5 and BO10 sell off.

At the US open, we are back to a range bound day.  An early range run from long to short, and an early SBBO test.  B1 completed the range run and was the 1BO challenge of the SB.  In hindsight, B2-3 FBO of the Middle BOT and the EMA was a low risk short, and would  be in a better position to hold the SB break.  But, as trading sometimes goes. the support of the SB was sufficient to wait for the 1PB to short, and that was B5 at 57.5.  Good for a SBBO +3.

Bulls were entering at the B10 TL with an expectation that PA would reverse and run the range.  This proved to be valid and had additional buying opportunity at B56-57 with EOD exits at 62.5.


At a SBBO of -4 and the range run LBBO to +2 the day was a nearly perfect range day.

EARLY START ON THE WEEKEND 4/20/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


TAKING an early start to the weekend.  Will have a daily review later.

The BOT levels for the US market are:

[07:08] <CM> off day early start to the weekend fri bot levels 81.25-78.75-76 favors a test of 84-86 area lbbo5


Those privy to the EOD BOTs that developed saw the range run and saw the LBBO5 and 10 hit in the after hours and Euro Zone trading.

4/19/12    [15:45] <CM> and here is the new bot bo (also a range run) at the low of day  (chart deleted)




END OF THE DAY WRAP UP


WHILE this was an early "vacation" day for an extended weekend, the charts and brief discussion have been added.  Last evening we discussed a new BOT that hit near the end of the day.  Asian and Euro Zone players could use that information for range runs and a BO5 trip.  US traders in #Chartmaster were provided the new BOT, and a range run was played.

In the pre US Open another BOT range was developed, with an expectation of this being a long bias day with a test to 84-86.


[07:08] <CM> off day early start to the weekend fri bot levels 81.25-78.75-76 favors a test of 84-86 area lbbo5

EXPANDED RANGE DAY 4/19/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

Early AM pre US Open seemed to favor a LBBO.  Either a long or a short BO would expand the range

Today, scattering some comments from chat as market developed.

[07:49] <CM> bots unchanged sb longs in ct but with range dynamics supported in all mkts (chart deleted)


[07:55] <CM> bias today seems to fav a lbbo but alert for a sbbo5 both would show an expansion of the range (unchanged as of this am)
[08:00] <CM> tf breaking ema +2 points from signal es +3 nq +6 ym +20 from signal


 <CM> gm all prior range run completed b1 range was in lower sector all mkts hit lows and reversed 2nd time for range run again per earlier stmt bias appears long today (link deleted)


We always look for the expected, and the surprise.  Today the market began to tell another story early in the trading day.


cm room post only  now for the other story  yes bias is long  but note from pic on 5m es  we are in a downward channel from 4:35 am est area  1384 roughly top of that channel  if news is crappy  look to short below ema  bottom channel roughly 75.5-76
 we play what is given..  (chart deleted)
 holding long exit at 50cb of b3  80.5 still in profit and enough room to reverse orders for a mkt flip

AND IT DID, with targets at the lower end of the channel.

[10:02] <CM> testing target again mkts selling
[10:04] <CM> 75-76 t1

B8-9
 nice clean out to 76  some covering after an extended bar
win win stp at sb target at bo5
 prior discussion a bo l/s will expand the range  still in a range bound mode..
 x part 76.50 still seeing some covering here






 thinking lod in fsbbo5 ema at sb and buyers trying to recover b7 also back inside b1 range we are still range bound just a bigger range now.. long here has -2 risk v +8 upside 1leg pb to ema es 5m


 expecting 85.5-86





ANOTHER RANGE RUN TO THE LB

 see exits at the lb
 <X> yes
 range run completed  (chart deleted)





B25-26

 long now for the hl bounce at the sb  the stop is 4t below the sb  


 for instance  79l stop at 78
with a +1 to 5t exit  trade makes $ (pays comm tax etc)  so a be bal or a be+1-3t is a win-win
so this trade although appears ct for pa, IT is sound under the bots  

 b27 new buyers join the mkt assures a positive trade  -chart deleted
clearer here w/tick chart added  -chart deleted







STOP MOVED TO +2 AND NOTICED A LH.  HMM, THE
'DICK TRACY"  WE WERE HEADING LOW, MUCH LOWER

 bal stop was at +2  had not adjusted
 since you were looking at terms this looks like dick tracy  right side drops lower  b30-32  deeper than 18-23


 target 75

 ok the bias early am posting was toward long as the sb was holding  when the bo stalled at b16-19 area  the range run was showing a short bias.  if one bot or a bo5 fails to hit it is believed that the pa will run to the opposite
 ie we did not get long bo5  so we should see the short bo5
 ding sbbo5







BOT 10 BUYERS AT THE BOUNCE

 73 buyers
 signal and a reversal of the prior tick cb  at a bo5, lod so a low risk long trial around  -chart deleted
 those may be overlaps  but I'm not sure how that term is used


 1 leg pb to ema  xpart 76.5 wait for leg2  stp at 74.5


 the 5m was stalling at ema  but it takes time to verify.  the tick chart was already showing a sell pb so the stop sold open positions to stay win-win


 t1 was the ema 5m







AND THE END OF THE DAY......

[14:26] <CM>  with that tracy move and the break of the sb  we have bo5  next target bo10 at 68.75


[14:48] <CM> eod look  since it seems we have some support between bo10 and bo15  increased bias (no stats so cant really say probability) of a pb to around bo5  mkt close in the 71-73 area


The end to another exciting day.

OFF TOMORROW FOR AN EARLY WEEKEND.........................

RANGE BOUND MEANS PLAY RANGE RUNS 4/18/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANGE  BOOOOOOOOOUND.....

Range bound days can be very trying for the trader.  Stalling moves, whip candles, waiting for a signal. OR, not playing at all.  The range today was some 5 points, yet we had four completed range runs.  Not bad for a range bound day.

There is something about waiting, when many want the fast score.

RANGE BOUND & THE NEXT MARKET 4/17/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


YESTERDAY  the discussion centered around playing a range bound day.  Until a new BOT range (one of significant in the calculation) develops, the current range will continue to be the focus.


from last evening:   [23:33] <CM> hold for 62 area (chart deleted)


A fellow trader was shorting 64 and 64.25 area.  The target would be a completion of the BO-5 level  and a hold for 62 should be profitable.  SBBO-5 hits and market PA reverses for a range run in the Euro Zone.

An early start for a nice day for trading, or simple a chance to walk away and enjoy the day in the States, the evening in Europe....


Trading information logs are maintained at:


http://evestnews.blogspot.com/ 


http://bottradingsystem.blogspot.com/ 


http://cmtrading-chartmaster.blogspot.com/ 


Open chat conversations can be found on Mirc-Othernet  using     #Chartmaster for the room 








US MARKET UPDATE   6:15 PM EST


RANGE BOUND  is PA consolidation and an extended BO is expected.  The long BOT broke  and PA was testing the BO-5 level at the US Open.  The extended run continued toward the BO20 level, where PA stalled and the anticipated 5 point PB developed.

RANGE BOUND: LOOK FOR RANGE RUNS 4/16/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

IN  a range bound day, the BO's are limited and the range runs will often be the better trade.  We will also expect extended periods of flat or sideways action which is dangerous/difficult to play and has a tendency to frazzle the nerves of traders involved.   Today's range was extended to BO5+ to BO5-.

BO5 long hit pre open for the US Market, reversed for a range run and left a gap to the SB BO5.  All subsequent test of the low ended with higher gaps.  PA ran the range (long then short) ending the day around the SB.

When trading, and especially in a range bound day, it is important to find buyers/sellers entering the market.  This can be analyzed over time frames or over markets.  The thought is,  enter/exit when they do.  Like a dance, you do not want to be first (nor only) person on the floor, and should you be a bit clumsy or awkward, wait for a crowded floor. Crowds can move PA and compensate you for not so perfect entries, albeit given enough time, you will most likely self destruct your account.

ENTRIES AND EXITS ACROSS MARKETS

STEPPING BACK TO SEE THE BIG PICTURE 4/13/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

DAILY BOTS:    1358.5        1383.75       1403.75      FOR THE WEEK




Last evening in after hours there was a nice sell off after PA max at the 88.5 area,  The three bar run then stalled and some PB targets were established for the NQ, YM, TF, and the ES.  Those hit, but the big picture was the max run.


Some days it will seem the market is unstable, unreadable.  It is times like that (actually good anytime) pull your chart back (reduce bar spacing) to see the bigger picture.  I know people play the Rth charts, and I find no fault in that.  Trade what fits your trading style.  But the Rth for the US misses the bigger picture in my opinion.


I was showing trading to a newbie at the open.  He understood trends but had no clue what to do at the open.  Two bars down then two bars going back up, albeit b4 did close bearish,  Then the big picture:  the obvious was a deep retrace of the prior bull run started at the max.  B5 we short and waited; PA moved for a SBBO-5


Pa for the bulls reached a +5 from the Mid Level on the daily before news began to unravel the run.  Too close, PA read can be difficult.  Take a step back, and see the big picture.  Often it makes a noticeable difference.


Final view, PA was back to where we began the longs: 63.5 area.  Holders at break even, traders very happy.




BIG PICTURE

US Market

AFTER RANGE DAY BULL BO 4/12/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

DISCUSSED last evening, but yesterday's stagnant narrow range was a setup for a bull BO day.  Longs were entering around 1363 for the range run.  The targets were in play and provided to chat members:

[15:53] <CM> upside targets 67.75-70.25-74.5 


LAST EVENING

The mid range flag resolved, and PA continued for the LB target.  When we have a narrow range day, the BOT levels will often go unchanged.  The calculated difference is not significant to change the levels.




EURO ZONE

PA remained strong in the upper range, and had a three push LBBO before returning for a range run.  This failure to break beyond 1372.5.  While winning trades were available, essentially we come into the US Open within the range.  There was a clue however in the SBBO around 9:00 AM EST.  Buyers were still strong around 1363.  A range run that stalls after the BO is thought to return for a range run, and a range run would clearly give the bulls an opportunity for profit.


THE US MARKET

The range run was strong at the open.  The first pull back (1PB) was followed by runs to 3 higher levels.  Ranges hit and hit and hit.

Look back to the commentary in the weekly outlook:  note the daily BOT range.

NARROW RANGE FOLLOWS THE BO20 DAY 4/11/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

AFTER an extended BO run , we tend to see a range bound day.  After a range bound day, we tend to see a BO run.  It's a thought..

B1       straddled the mid range, market not reading long nor short.
B5-6    1PB at open and a MAXT slightly above the SB for long entries
B14     50CB test of B13 for a FBO of the LB.
B15     short entries
B26     secondary entry   EMA MB hold looking for a second leg down for the range rum (70.25-65.25)
B28     SBBO short for new entries.
B30-32 buy pressure hold near the SB.
B33     long entries with stops below B30
B49     PA holing above TL with a gap to the SB
B55     4 bull reversal bar.  Short with stops above b53
B61     new shorts would see a SB FBO
B69    new SBBO sh was successful.  B66-68 held under TL.  B55 holders looking for LOD

EOD   1383 buyers with a 4t stop

50CB'S AND SBBO'S 4/10/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE PA in the Euro Zone was trending down but was holding at the Short BOT (break out target) at 1374.5.  A PB to the Mid level, bounce at the upper TL and a technical SBBO (BO+1 before -1).  Buyers enter just prior to the US Open and were paid a +4.  So far, looking good.

The issue was that 50CB from around 6:45 AM EST. Sellers were waiting; one push to the EMA, two pushes to the SB for another technical BO.  Prior support at 1374 fell, prior target 1370 fell.  BO-5 , 10, 15, and 20 followed to reach slightly below the daily SB at 1358.

The end of the day PB scenario was adjusted.  A BO run to 10 that fails tends to retrace back to BO-5.  Today, it finally settled at BO-20 back to BO-15.  Above the daily SB which is important.

MARKET FOLLOWS THE OUTLOOK 4/9/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE market seemed to follow the outlook:  we needed a test of 1382-1384.  Buyers could profit and last evening we were long 1374 and again suggested it was a buy level early this AM.

[07:29] <CM> the overnight play stop at 77.5 (post deleted showing long 1374)    pre us open testing highs again  1378 resist for a bo




This play looked promising again at the US Open.  B's 5-6 and B's 23-26 offered entries at the buy level which was above the 1370 target mentioned in the prior week outlook.  When these buy levels develop, and it could just as easily be a sell level, the BOTs are helpful in determining the range and break out targets.

Today, the trading emphasis is on another tool: the buy/exit and sell/exit analyzer.  BE and SE levels develop each day and in each market trading zone.  The tool  is used to find entries then the exit(s) which will often be in a trend of various bar time lengths.  The wider the exits, the better the trend or hold period.  As exits begin to narrow, the trend/PA is likely to stall if not reverse.

Today, the BE's were at +3, +6, +7.5, and  +8.5.  The gaps between the exits began to narrow and we had a TL reversal break.  The short were +2 and +5.5 back to the support.

BOTs and BE/SE, a winning pair.

OUTLOOK WEEK ENDING 4/13/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM


MONDAY can still be a lack luster day.  Many investors take an extra day for the Easter holiday, and Tuesday begins the Earning Season.  Cash has been leaving the equities for several weeks, and hedge funds appear to still be underweight in equities.  Short response, the market has the makings for another run higher.

The Masters is a golf classic deep in the woods of Georgia and this year it was won by a guy named Bubba Watson.  This too must be a sign!

Bubba wins, money on the sideline, funds need to correct holding allocations, and earnings can be a plus for a continued bull in April.  PA is down to entry levels where new bulls can profit.  PA to 1382-84 would test the recent bear 50CB level and should see a test.  A strong showing this week gets money excited for next week.

More trouble stories from the Euro Zone has caused concern.  Money is leaving Europe and coming to America.  All these "negatives" actually play well for another bull favor.

DAILY BOTS:    1358.5        1383.75       1403.75

SUPPORT YOUR TRADE & TAKE IT 4/7/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

WE have used blog post to talk about various trades that exit with the BOT System:  Long BO's, Range Runs, and Short BO's are dominant.  RR plays can be extended or quick to materialize.  It is those slow plays that will leave some traders out, or create early exits.  If PA is range bound inside the ranges, that too presents problems with holding for the range run.  A solution is to focus on trend line plays within the range run.  It should be obvious, Trend Line plays (TL) can be used at any time PA has established a trend, either a few bars or extended, and we can have trends within trends.

  In all the possible plays, a trader can improve upon their success by having support for the trade.  This support can be any PA set up,  patterns, or tools used by the trader.  The use of multiple time frame charts is beneficial as well.

THE STORY:

PA had hit the LB resistance and was in a range run.  This was one of those extended runs, slow to develop and finding support at the Mid BOT.  The "big picture" trend was down.  Buyers had staggered their longs (roughly 94.5-93-90.5).  They need an exit to profit, or their covering will push the PA below the support at the MB.


THE 5M LOOK

The last buy entries created a gap to the MB and we see a new TL develop.  The strategy with a TL:  hold until there is a break.  If your not in, look for a secondary entry on the TL.  The dominate trend is down, and we will assume it will return until it too is broken.  The bear TL was broken at/near point 2.  Another factor, look for TL FBO.  The TL is played like the BOTs.  Essentially, a TL is a diagonal BOT.

Buyers got their profit exit (avg. 1-1.25) near point 3.  PA reverts back bearish and breaks the EMA and the TL.  Short to the support.


SUPPORT CHART

Supporting your trade will improve your ability to trade.  Improved confidence will help you take winners and not second guess losers.  If the trade is not support, do not take it.  If it's not working, get out.  Focus on the why to the trade and your support.

THE 1M

 

The entry at point 1 seems clearer, as does the secondary entry at point 2 and the TL BO.  The caveat, Short time frames are for quick trades, too quick for most traders.  But a standard trading chart combined with a less time frame can often provide additional information for the trader.

READING THE BOT LEVELS 4/6/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

BREAK OUT TARGETS  BOTs

The BOT levels area PA calculation that can be created at any point in time, but generally they are created prior to the US market open and run for 24 hours, or until a new level is created.  If the Euro Zone was the dominant trading time, then the calculations would occur prior to that market open.

The ranges are:

•  normal spread. long the LB short the SB and play the range run
• bear bias, the ranges are tighter near the lows.
• bull bias, ranges are tighter near the high.

Today, we saw the bear bias in the market.

NARROW RANGE TO TARGET BO 4/6/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

A narrow range over night and through the Euro Zone was screaming: watch for a bold, extended BO.  These run 10-15 and have been 15-20 previously with the BOTs.

Today's BO ran to B)-10 and the 1370 area target mentioned in the 4/1/12 weekly outlook.

RANGE RUN RETURNS 4/5/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

BULLS had some small victory today.  They held the market in a range run and stalled the BO selling of the past  two days.  PA moved to the LB early in the Euro Zone only to run the the SB.  The problem, neither would break.

At the US Open we have a range run developing and a BO of the upper bear TL.  Today it was more of a wedge  and PA continued to the LB.  A FBO and a pull back to the EMA for extended side ways action.

A boring PM trading day, but some relief for the bulls.

PRE US SELLING HALTED AT BO5 4/4/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

THE Euro Zone selling hit for a BOT range run that completed at B1 open for the US.  B1 range was essentially the Mid BOT (MB) to the Short BOT (SB).  Extended sideways actions is difficult to play, but always a treat in the making.  S/W PA creates nice BO"s.

The SB had a technical break out (+1 before -1) that ran for the BO-5.  Two FBO's  and a nice run to the target 1 and T2.  B60 was the key to the T2 and SB leg.

EOD selling pushed PA back to T2.

Euro Zone

US MARKET

NARROW RANGE EQUALS GREAT BO RUNS 4/3/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

OH NO. A BOT magnet.

PA was in a nice bear channel from the Euro Zone.  It gave way to a strong bull channel that began around 7:30-8 AM EST.  Then the narrow range that trashed from LB+ to LB- for the first hour of the US market.  1-2 points and BE are not the trades we want.  BO or range run not "hanging out" at the BOT.

Patience with a narrow range pays off.  A narrow range is expected to provide an extended BO.

[10:30] <CM> PA magnet  at least this extended range bound trading is expected to have a bold bo  in past those went to 10-15 15-20  

That final push failed to run to BO-5 and PA reversed for a range run and eventual BO-5.  Some 13+ point run.

A reversal was seen at the end of the day for a long to the SB and them the MB.

RANGE RUN SELLING REVERSED IN US MARKET 4/2/12

BOT TRADING SYSTEM

LAST evening the suggested point for selling was 1407.  We had a LB gap open that hit the BO-5 area and stalled.  By the Euro Zone, the PA failing above the LB was seen as weakness, and the 1407 shorts delivered for a nice range run to the SB area.

The best the bulls could do was a reversal back to the bear selling TL.  By B172 (around 8:15) we have a double bottom push back to the bear TL.  By the US Open we had the final test of the SB and the bull channel is underway.  Although the SBBO hit a +1 first, there was no guarantee of an exit.  In the weekly analysis, it will be regarded as a failed BO.

The B1 buy signal combined with the SBFBO created a low risk buy in the 1401 area with targets at 3.5 and 5.5 as a minimum for the range run.  +8 profit taking for the LOD bulls created a PB to the LB creating opportunity for new longs in the next leg for the bulls.  BO-5 was hit and PA continued to additional exits at the BO-10 level.  The FBO of BO-10 was regarded as a short with PA expected to return to the BO-5 area.  This is a typical play, and it was successful again today.