KEEP IT SIMPLE...
TODAY the big picture, and the bigger picture. The big picture is the trend, and what price action has been doing before you begin to trade. I know some people only look at the Rth charts. But if I start at 7:30, the Rth US chart starting at 9:30 does me no good. Traders must know what the market has done/is doing when they start trading. Gaps at the US open are artificial, since PA has been ticking away from the prior day.
THE BIG PICTURE
A bear trending channel coming into the US Open which reverses at Bars 13-14 and begins a bull channel trend into the close. Channel and Break Out Targets reflect support and resistance as PA moves in a narrow range.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture is, when PA sentiment offer the opportunity for a profitable trade? The trend is great; the channels and the breakouts. But PA reflects the sentiment of traders, and not the guys in your trading circle. It is the sentiment of trading giants and it will direct you toward profits.
Trading can often be judgmental, however there will be PA reads that tell enough of the story to take action.
The chart has been expanded to see more PA detail. We begin at #1. PA is at the top of the channel, in a range run for the BOTs, and at the EMA. Bars 2-4 are expanding the B1 range. Notice how PA pushes up to the Long break out (green line) and pulls back. Look at the bar bodies. We are in a narrow range from pre open B276. PA is saying shorts are in the 1394.5-1395.5 area and they would have a stop around 1396 to LB+5t. The short worked as PA moved down the BOTs and to the lower TL of the channel.#2 Pa showing weakness. Seems it is having trouble with 1390. Longs are in at 1390-91. If you do not understand BOT levels or channels or break outs, understand when and where PA shows multi-bar support or resistance. Make the trade with a protective stop just ahead of the s/r.
#3 When in a trade, look for a reason to exit. Again, a range run (which is a play) after the reversal. PA again hits the "memory" area of resistance and has an EMA pull back. Continues to follow the channel with EMA as support.
#4 Finally break the long BOT and notice the resistance at 1397.5. Average shorts are in at 97.5-97.75 area with stops around 98.75.
#6 and #8 are at similar levels and exhibit similar bar patterns showing a sluggish bull at resistance. note after the two selling bear bars 61-62 a relatively low risk short is available to the #7 area. This was the trade discussed in the chat. Sluggish bull, PA looking lower to around 95.
#5 and #7 are similar bounces at the LB support and higher lows from B32 area.
All lines and signals could be erased. The PA would still tell a story.
No comments:
Post a Comment